October Pokemon Market Recap

The Pokémon Trading Card Game market in October 2025 was characterized by hyperactivity in the modern card segment, driven by the new Mega Evolution set, while the high-end vintage market showed signs of a potential slowdown. Speculative buyouts and artist-focused hype created significant volatility in single card prices, contrasting with sharp corrections in recently released sealed products.

• New "Mega Evolution" Set Drives Market Activity: The English release of the Mega Evolution set on September 25th dominated market focus throughout October, with its associated products, like Build & Battle Boxes and the Mega Latias ex Box, releasing on October 10th. The set's rollout was a major catalyst for price movement and collector interest, with additional products like Mega Gengar ex and Mega Diancie ex theme decks arriving on October 24th.
• Mega Lucario and Gardevoir Emerge as Chase Cards: The two "Mega Hyper Rare" gold cards from Mega Evolution immediately became the set's most valuable. Mega Lucario ex (188/132) established itself as the top chase card, with a market price climbing from around $558 to nearly $675 in early October, and raw copies trading on eBay for as high as $771. Mega Gardevoir ex (187/132), the second Mega Hyper Rare, saw its price rise from $283 to $327 in the same period, stabilizing around a $497 market value.
• Speculative Buyouts Create Extreme Volatility: Several modern cards experienced sharp, artificial price spikes driven by coordinated buyouts. The Illustration Rare Marshadow from Mega Evolution was a prime example, jumping from $40 to $90 after a buyout targeted its corresponding card from the Cosmic Eclipse set. Similarly, a buyout of the Tyranitar from Paldea Evolved occurred around October 20th, causing a sharp price increase. This "buyout culture" has become a significant source of collector frustration and market instability.
• Artist Hype Fuels Spikes in Back-Catalogue Cards: Hype surrounding specific card illustrators drove significant price increases for otherwise overlooked cards. Cards illustrated by USGMEN, the artist behind the popular "Bubble Mew," saw massive gains; Solosis (118/086) from Black Bolt catapulted from $12 to $58 before correcting to $45. Other Illustration Rares from Black Bolt like Palpitoad, Tynamo, and Cubchoo more than doubled in price during the first half of the month.
• Japanese Market Mirrors English Trends: The Japanese release of Mega Evolution (as Mega Brave in August) also drove price spikes in October. Marshadow saw a similar surge, climbing from a low of $6 to a market price of $17. The Special Art Rare for Lillie's Determination also continued to climb, reaching just under $250. In the Japanese market, the top card is Lillie's Determination, while the top illustration rares are the connecting Bulbasaur and Ivysaur cards.
• 'Lost Origin' Set Experiences Major Value Readjustment: The Sword & Shield—Lost Origin set saw significant market re-evaluation mid-month. The Giratina V Alternate Full Art soared from $570 in September to over $720, while several popular Trainer Gallery cards, such as Gengar TG06 and Pikachu TG05, experienced price "crashes," dropping from highs of over $50 to a range of $26–$38.
• 'Destined Rivals' Sealed Booster Boxes Correct Sharply: Following a period of intense hype where booster boxes peaked around $500, the popular Destined Rivals set saw its sealed box price fall dramatically after a restock at the Pokémon Center. Prices stabilized in the $360-$370 range, though numerous sales were recorded between $300 and $425 throughout the month, indicating significant volatility.
• 'Evolving Skies' Sealed Product Remains a Blue-Chip Asset: In stark contrast to newer sets, the out-of-print Evolving Skies booster box demonstrated price stability at the high end of the market. Throughout October, it consistently sold in a range between $2,100 and $2,699, with a market price holding firm around $2,300, reinforcing its status as a top-tier sealed investment.
• High-End Vintage Bellwethers See No Top-Grade Public Sales: The most iconic vintage cards were notably absent from public auction results at their highest grade. No public sales of a PSA 10 1st Edition Base Set Charizard were recorded in October. Similarly, no PSA 10 1st Edition Neo Genesis Lugia cards sold publicly in the three months leading up to October 21, 2025. This lack of top-tier sales suggests a potential slowdown or lack of available inventory at the pinnacle of the vintage market.
• Gold Star Cards Show Pockets of Strength: While the top vintage grails were quiet, the Gold Star card market remained active. A PSA 10 Japanese Gold Star Rayquaza sold for a record $25,876 on October 3rd. Cards from the Team Rocket Returns set also performed well, with a PSA 9 Gold Star Torchic selling for $13,100 on October 14th and multiple PSA 9 Gold Star Treecko cards selling for between $5,000 and $6,000. A PSA 10 Japanese Gold Star Celebi also sold for $8,000 on October 21st.
• Market Sentiment Remains "Hyper-Accelerated" Amidst Caution: Community discussion reflects a belief that the market is in a "hyper-accelerated" boom phase expected to continue into 2026, fueled by nostalgia, social media, and the financialization of the hobby. However, this enthusiasm is tempered by growing concerns over scalping, speculative buyouts, and the potential for a market correction.
• "Crash vs. Correction" Debate Intensifies: The sharp price drop of products like the Destined Rivals booster box fueled community debate on whether the market is experiencing a healthy correction or heading for a crash. While some analysts point to falling promo card prices and a seasonal holiday spending slowdown as warning signs, the consensus is that strong performance in other areas, like Evolving Skies, indicates healthy retracement and price stabilization rather than a full-scale collapse